Trading activity of foreign investors and crude oil prices would also remain in the limelight during the week, experts noted. "This week brings a series of important economic data releases from India and the United States, which are likely to influence market sentiment and central bank outlooks.
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'...a mix of asset classes.' 'Include equities for growth (across market caps), debt for stability and liquidity, gold as a hedge against macro and currency risk, and global assets for geographical and economic diversification.'
'The pace of gold's ascent is striking, with prices rising from $3,500/oz to $4,000/oz in just 36 days -- far quicker than the historical average of 1,036 days taken to achieve similar $500/oz gains.'
Trump may strike. He may announce productive talks and extend again. He may do both at the same time. Iran will not open the Strait on someone else's terms, so no matter what happens, that problem will remain unsolved. And the IRGC will still be collecting its $2 million toll from every ship bold enough to ask permission to pass.
Gold extended its record-breaking run to breach the Rs 1.5 lakh per 10-gram mark in futures trade on Tuesday, while silver surged to a lifetime high of Rs 3.27 lakh per kg as investors rushed to safe-haven assets amid mounting global tensions. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for February delivery climbed Rs 6,861, or 4.7 per cent, to record Rs 1,52,500 per 10 grams after settling at Rs 1,45,639 per 10 grams in the previous session.
Bharat Electronics, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, Larsen & Toubro, InterGlobe Aviation, ICICI Bank and UltraTech Cement were among the other major gainers. Axis Bank, Infosys, Tata Consultancy Services, Trent and Titan were the laggards.
Both sides have now revealed a preference for escalation over strategic defeat, and each new provocation narrows the space for the next pause. The Touska seizure, Iran's refusal to negotiate under blockade, Israel's strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure -- all of these add up to an increasingly untenable situation. This makes the wild card -- Trump and his motormouth -- more consequential than ever, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
Fears around artificial intelligence (AI) sparked a global selloff in information technology (IT) stocks, dragging down domestic software shares and prompting the heaviest foreign portfolio investor (FPI) outflows since the second half of July 2025.
The Americans can occupy Bab el Mandeb, claim to have 'solved' the Strait of Hormuz crisis, declare victory that President Trump so desperately needs, points out Colonel Anil A Athale, former head of the history division, ministry of defence.
The recent correction suggests that while precious metals hedge geopolitical tension and inflation, they are not immune to sharp short-term corrections and profit-booking.
Among Sensex firms, HCL Tech, ICICI Bank, Titan, Trent, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Mahindra & Mahindra and HDFC Bank were the major laggards. However, Adani Ports, Bharti Airtel, SBI, NTPC and Sun Pharma were among the gainers.
The pause gives the US time to breathe, to regroup, to move its expeditionary force into position without risk of interception along the way. It gives Iran nothing -- on the ground, attacks against its infrastructure continue apace. Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The cost of the war is being counted not in the corridors of power in Washington or Tehran, but in Firozabad's darkened furnace rooms, Howrah's idle casting sheds, and a barbershop in Kochi where the wait is suddenly, inexplicably, an hour long, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War.
Stock markets will be driven by RBI's interest rate decision, tariff-related developments, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in this holiday-shortened week, analysts said.
Stock market benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended 2.5 per cent higher on Tuesday after India and the US agreed to a trade deal under which Washington will bring down the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods to 18 per cent.
Equity markets will keenly track outcome of the US Federal Reserve policy meeting this week amid heightened expectations of an interest rate cut along with WPI inflation data, analysts said. Any further development on the USndia trade front would also drive trends in the equity market, experts said.
There are hopes of a turnaround in overall corporate earnings after six quarters of single digit growth.
From the 30-Sensex firms, Bharat Electronics surged nearly 9 per cent post its December quarter earnings. Eternal, Bajaj Finance, Power Grid, Trent, Mahindra & Mahindra and UltraTech Cement were the other major gainers. Maruti, Sun Pharma, Infosys and Bharti Airtel were among the other laggards.
Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty ended marginally higher on Wednesday as a sharp decline in IT blue-chip stocks restricted the rally in the markets.
From the 30-share Sensex pack, Tata Consultancy Services and Infosys jumped over 4 per cent each. HCL Technologies, Tech Mahindra, Adani Ports, Larsen & Toubro, Maruti and Reliance Industries were also among big gainers. Titan, IndusInd Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Axis Bank and HDFC Bank were the laggards.
Their assets under management (AUM) rose from Rs 1.04 trillion (January 31, 2025) to Rs 1.75 trillion (January 31, 2026), an increase of 68.3 per cent.
Through the past 12 months, the Bank Nifty has risen 55%
'Was the five-day pause ever meant to hold, or was it simply another instrument of signaling, of positioning, of buying time in a war where even the pauses are tactical?' asks Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
India overtakes Australia following the election rally; market cap could cross $1.5 trillion in 12 months, close to that of Switzerland.
It has mostly been a one-way street for markets that have moved up sharply since July. The front-line indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have gained 6.7 per cent and 7.3 per cent, respectively, in the past three months. The rally in mid- and small-caps has been sharper, with both indices surging 14 per cent and 9 per cent, respectively, during this period. This sharp run has made analysts at Jefferies cautious.
Equity investors would track global market trends, inflation data and trading activity of foreign investors for further cues this week, analysts said. Moreover, progress of monsoon and developments related to trade talks would also be monitored by investors, experts noted.
There are a few factors that can spoil the party
From the Sensex firms, Reliance Industries climbed 3.52 per cent after the firm on Friday reported a 9.6 per cent year-on-year rise in net profit for the September quarter, driven by strong performance in its consumer-facing retail and telecom businesses and a recovery in its core oil-to-chemicals segment. Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, State Bank of India, Tata Consultancy Services, Titan and Bharti Airtel were also among the gainers. However, ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra, Eternal, Adani Ports and Power Grid were among the laggards.
Foreign brokerages remain cautious on the road ahead for the Indian equity markets. Though analysts at Nomura have revised their March 2026 Nifty target to 26,140 levels from the earlier 24,970, but the upside from the current levels is a modest 6 per cent. BofA Securities, on the other hand, has not made any change to its year-end Nifty target.
With the earnings season drawing to a close, stock markets will take cues from global trends and foreign investors' trading activity this week, analysts said. The US FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) minutes will be the major highlight this week, experts said. "This week, there are fewer cues on the macro and micro fronts, as the Q1 earnings season has concluded.
Among Sensex firms, Bajaj Finance and Bajaj Finserv were the biggest gainers. Asian Paints, Larsen & Toubro, Trent, UltraTech Cement, Eternal and Adani Ports were also among the winners. However, Tata Motors, Infosys, Tech Mahindra and Axis Bank were among the laggards.
For weeks, the war skirted the edge of catastrophe without tipping over. Missiles flew, there was much destruction, commanders were assassinated, cities across the Gulf and even in Israel struggled to absorb the shock. But one line held: Energy infrastructure, the arteries of the global economy, remained largely untouched. That is no longer true. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Liquidity issues post the crisis at DHFL, progress of monsoon, rupee trajectory at the domestic level and oil prices are some factors that will keep markets choppy, analysts say.
Among the Sensex firms, State Bank of India, Maruti Suzuki India, Axis Bank, NTPC, BEL, Adani Ports, Eternal, Sun Pharmaceuticals, Power Grid, ITC, UltraTech Cement, Trent, HCL Technologies, Mahindra & Mahindra, and HDFC Bank were the major gainers. On the other hand, Tata Steel, Tata Consultancy Services, Tech Mahindra, Titan, Bajaj Finserv, Tata Motors, Bharti Airtel and Bajaj Finance were among the laggards.
Stock markets will be mainly driven by quarterly earnings by corporates, foreign fund flows and global trends this week, analysts said.
Indian frontline benchmarks - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 - have rallied around 12 per cent each since June-end and outperformed their global peers by a wide margin. On Thursday, the US Fed hiked interest rates by another 75 basis points (bps) - the third such hike this year - and surprised the markets by projecting further sizable hikes in the coming months. With the latest hike, the Fed fund rate (FFR) now stands in the range of 3 - 3.25 per cent and is highest since January 2008.
This is the second-worst performance by the pack during this period over the last five years since CY20.
